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Managed Medicare Patient Day Mix Continues Increase

NIC MAP^® Data Service, powered by NIC MAP Vision, released its latest Skilled Nursing Monthly Report on May 6, 2021, which includes key monthly data points from January 2012 through February 2021.

Here are some key takeaways from the report.

The occupancy rate for skilled nursing increased by 42 basis points in February 2021, edging up to 71.2% from its all-time low of 70.7% in January. This brought the occupancy rate back to its December 2020 level. Despite the February improvement, occupancy remains 13.7 percentage points below its year-earlier level. There have been only three monthly-increases since the pandemic started and the February increase was the largest among them. The other two increases were short-lived in September and October of 2020 due to the Fall/Winter surge of COVID-19 cases across the country. There is cautious optimism that occupancy will continue to inch higher and stabilize in 2021 but questions remain of how consistent and how fast these month-to-month improvements will be.

 

Medicare patient day mix decreased in February, ending the month at 13.4%. This represents a 142-basis point decrease from January and a 175-basis point drop from December 2020. On the other hand, managed Medicare patient mix increased from January and ended February at 7.9%, up 107 basis points since December and up 255 basis points from the 2020 low set in May last year. It is possible that managed Medicare patient days are starting to increase after significant declines due to elective surgery delays and home health competition during the pandemic.

Managed Medicare revenue mix increased by 48 basis points from January to 11.1% in February. The revenue mix trends provide further evidence that managed Medicare admissions may be increasing as they are up 275 basis points from the 2020 low set in May last year. In addition and in a similar trend to patient day mix, Medicare revenue mix decreased 171 basis points from January to end February at 23.4%. This suggests there was less need to convert Medicaid patients to Medicare as resident cases of COVID-19 declined in February.

Medicaid patient day mix increased in February after hitting a multi-year low of 64.8% in January. It increased 110 basis points from January but is still down 119 basis points from February 2020. In addition, Medicaid revenue mix increased from January, ending February at 48.6%. However, it has decreased 6.4 percentage points from February 2020 suggesting Medicaid patient days have dramatically decreased from one year ago, due to lower overall admissions and some Medicaid patients who may have converted to Medicare due to the waiver of the 3-Day Rule during this crisis period.

To get more trends from the latest data you can download the Skilled Nursing Monthly Report here. There is no charge for this report.

The report provides aggregate data at the national level from a sampling of skilled nursing operators with multiple properties in the United States. NIC continues to grow its database of participating operators in order to provide data at localized levels in the future. Operators who are interested in participating can complete a participation form here. All data is maintained with strict confidentiality.

About Bill Kauffman

Senior Principal Bill Kauffman works with the research team in providing research and analysis in various areas including sales transactions and skilled nursing. He has lead roles in creating new and enhanced products and implementation of new processes. Prior to joining NIC he worked at Shelter Development in investing/acquiring, financing, and asset management for over $1 billion in assets. He also had key roles in the value creation and strategic planning and analysis for over 65 entities. He received his Bachelor of Business Administration in Finance from the College of Business and Economics at Radford University and his Master of Science in Finance from Loyola College in Maryland. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst Designation (CFA).

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This blog was originally published on NIC Notes.

About NIC
The National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC), a 501(c)(3) organization, works to enable access and choice by providing data, analytics, and connections that bring together investors and providers. The organization delivers the most trusted, objective, and timely insights and implications derived from its analytics, which benefit from NIC’s affiliation with NIC MAP Vision, the leading provider of comprehensive market data for senior housing and skilled nursing properties. NIC events, which include the industry’s premiere conferences, provide sector stakeholders with opportunities to convene, network, and drive thought-leadership through high-quality educational programming.  To see all that NIC offers, visit nic.org.