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 Senior housing development pace needs to triple to meet the needs of growing 80+ population 

Raleigh, N.C., (June 26, 2024) — The sirens are sounding: We currently don’t have enough senior housing to meet the demands of older populations. As the number of people aged 80 and older continues to grow rapidly, we will not have enough senior housing to meet this demand in the next five years. This is according to detailed projections from NIC MAP Vision, the senior housing industry’s leading provider of senior housing data and analytics. NIC MAP Vision’s report – Senior Housing Outlook – highlights a critical shortage of senior housing developments amidst rapidly growing demand, emphasizing the need for immediate action and the ripe opportunity for investors.

Senior Housing: A $275 billion opportunity

Senior housing is poised to be one of the most profitable real estate asset classes. According to NIC MAP Vision data, the current senior housing development pace indicates a 550,000-unit shortfall by 2030, which represents a $275 billion investment shortage. This is prime to be filled with new investments in senior housing inventory to meet the needs of the aging population.

“There’s a significant generational opportunity for investors in senior housing development and acquisition. As the demand for senior housing grows, investing in this sector will result in substantial returns and long-term growth,” said Arick Morton, NIC MAP Vision Chief Executive Officer.

Booming Senior Population: Time to Go Long in Senior Housing

Emerging from the pandemic, labor crisis, and capital markets freeze due to high interest rates, the senior housing market is ripe for investment. The number of people aged 80 and older is projected to grow rapidly over the next 25 years, with historic absorption growth already up 40 percent year over year. Absorption is outpacing supply growth, indicating a significant unmet demand. Despite this, the current investment trend is insufficient to meet the growing need, presenting an immediate opportunity to go long in senior housing.

“The senior housing industry has battled through a trifecta of crises. As we move past the challenges of the pandemic, labor shortages, and high-interest rates affecting capital markets, the senior housing market presents a prime investment opportunity,” said Morton. “We see the longer view. The demand is high and the current supply insufficient, making it an ideal time for investment in this sector.”

Critical Shortage of Senior Housing Developments: Need to Triple Development Pace

The report underscores the urgent need for a historic increase in new senior housing units to keep pace with the growing demand. New senior housing starts have plummeted to just 0.2 percent of the existing inventory, the lowest level in recent history. To meet the projected needs over the next six years, development must accelerate to more than 3.5 times the current pace. With only 26,000 units being developed annually compared to the highest rate of 56,000 units in the 21st century, the industry is on track to fall 50 percent short of the required inventory by 2025. Alarmingly, only 25 percent of the necessary units have been developed to date.

“We are critically behind in taking care of our aging population,” said Morton. “We’re already seeing the early stages of this incredible demand growth that will continue non-stop for the next 25 years and beyond. We simply don’t have enough senior housing inventory in the pipeline, so we must act now to develop senior housing to help meet this demand.” 

 

About NIC MAP Vision

NIC MAP Vision maximizes access, choice, and quality in senior housing by providing data, analytics, and services to industry stakeholders and partners. We are the only intelligence provider exclusively dedicated to senior housing. As the industry’s gold standard for market analytics data, we are trusted by the largest government agencies, 18 of the 20 largest senior housing operators, and most of the largest investors and owners. Every day, thousands of industry professionals use our data platform and proprietary tools to make smarter decisions about where to grow, how to grow, and how to bring a strategy to life. For more information, visit https://www.nicmapvision.com/

Media Contact

Mary Prevost, Prevost Partners
612.202.3047, mary@prevostpartners.com