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The aging population in the United States is growing rapidly, and metropolitan areas (MSAs) are seeing significant changes in their senior demographics. According to the latest 5-year population growth estimates from Nielsen Claritas data, the number of seniors aged 80 and above is expected to increase substantially in many metropolitan areas. Understanding these trends is crucial for the senior housing industry, as it provides insights that can guide investment and development strategies. This analysis delves into the projections for senior population growth, with a focus on key metropolitan areas and the implications for the industry.

Largest Metros and Their Growth Patterns

The largest metropolitan areas in the country, such as New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Miami, are poised to see substantial growth in their senior populations. This increase is primarily due to aging in place, where individuals currently aged 75 to 79 will transition into the 80+ category over the next five years. However, despite this significant rise in the senior population, these metros are projected to experience little to no growth in their overall population.

In New York, for example, the raw growth of seniors is the highest among all metros, yet the percentage increase remains below the national average. Los Angeles and Chicago exhibit similar patterns, with significant increases in their senior populations but flat overall population growth. Miami, too, shows considerable senior population growth while maintaining limited overall population increase. These trends highlight the importance of focusing on the aging demographic even in areas where the total population is not expected to rise significantly.

Standout Markets: Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta

Among primary markets, Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta stand out with both high volumes of senior growth and substantial percentage increases. Each of these metros is projected to gain over 50,000 new seniors by 2029, with growth rates around 30%. Several factors contribute to the attractiveness of these markets for seniors.

Firstly, these cities offer robust job markets and economic stability, which attract populations who eventually stay and age in place. Additionally, the cost of living is relatively lower compared to other large metros, making them appealing for retirees. Furthermore, these cities boast well-developed healthcare infrastructures, which is a critical factor for seniors seeking quality medical care and support services.

Austin: A Secondary Market with Exceptional Growth

Austin, a secondary market in terms of total population, is projected to see the highest percentage increase in its senior population, nearing 40% by 2024. This exceptional growth can be attributed to several factors. Austin’s vibrant cultural scene and mild climate make it an appealing destination for seniors. As a growing tech hub, Austin attracts a diverse population, contributing to its rapid growth across all age groups including adult children. This dynamic environment, coupled with the city’s affordability and quality of life, makes it a hotspot for senior population growth.

The ‘Half-Back’ Phenomenon

The ‘half-back’ phenomenon is another key trend impacting senior population growth. This term describes the migration pattern of seniors who initially moved to Florida but are now relocating halfway back to their original homes, settling in states like North Carolina, Tennessee, and Georgia. Metros such as Charlotte, Raleigh, and Nashville are experiencing notable increases in their senior populations due to this trend.

Charlotte and Raleigh offer a balance of urban amenities and suburban tranquility, appealing to seniors seeking a more leisure pace of life without completely detaching from city conveniences. Nashville, known for its vibrant music scene and cultural heritage, attracts seniors looking for a lively yet affordable retirement destination. These cities provide a welcoming environment for retirees, combining affordability with rich cultural experiences and quality healthcare.

Comparing Senior and Total Population Growth

The chart below offers a comparative analysis of the projected 5-year percentage growth for total and senior populations by metro. It reveals that senior population growth outpaces total population growth in all metros, though there are notable outliers in terms of its margin between the two. For instance, Las Vegas exhibits a 30% increase in the senior population compared to only a 2.5% increase in the total population. This disparity suggests a significant influx of seniors, likely due to Las Vegas’ attractive retirement communities and favorable tax policies.

On the other hand, Tampa shows a more balanced growth pattern with an 18% increase in the senior population and a 6% increase in the total population. This indicates that Tampa is appealing to both working-age individuals and retirees, possibly due to its overall appeal as a family-friendly destination.

Implications for the Senior Housing Industry

The demographic trends of senior growth from those residents who are currently there and will age in place highlight the importance of focusing on the aging population even in metros with stagnating or even declining total populations. The primary driver of senior population growth is aging in place, which underscores the need for senior housing developments that cater to the existing population transitioning into the 80+ category. This trend presents significant opportunities for the senior housing industry, particularly in primary and secondary markets throughout the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions.

Metros like Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, and Austin show both high volume and high percentage growth in senior populations, making them attractive markets for senior housing investments. Additionally, understanding the ‘half-back’ phenomenon can help identify emerging markets that will benefit from this migratory trend. Developers and investors should focus on these areas to capitalize on the growing demand for senior housing.

Conclusion

The projections for senior population growth over the next five years highlight significant opportunities and challenges for the senior housing industry. Large metros are set to experience substantial increases in their senior populations due to aging in place, even as their overall population growth remains flat. Conversely, markets such as Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta, along with secondary markets like Austin, are projected to see both high volumes and high percentage increases in their senior populations. The ‘half-back’ phenomenon, where seniors relocate from Florida to states like North Carolina, Tennessee, and Georgia, further shapes the senior population landscape, benefiting metros like Charlotte, Raleigh, and Nashville. Understanding these demographic trends is crucial for strategic planning in the senior housing market.

NIC MAP Vision is the premier source for senior housing related market data, offering unparalleled insights into population and supply trends in the senior housing and care segments. By leveraging NIC MAP Vision’s expertise, developers and investors can make informed decisions, strategically plan for the future, and address the needs of an aging population. 

Look out for our upcoming blog, where we will explore the impact of migration-related data on development planning in the senior housing market.

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